Have you heard of Phil Ruthven? I hadn’t, until while driving and listening to ABC612, I heard Richard Fidler introduce him as a man who, during this economic crisis, is often one of the few calm voices.
Phil, Richard said, was often the only voice pouring water on the crisis fires, with his vast knowledge and experience of business and economic cycles. So I didn’t flick my radio up to Radio National, and enjoyed Richard’s interview with this knowledgeable and seemingly-humble man. He started as a food scientist in the early 1960s. During a visit to the US as a Rotarian he was able to visit a US war room which had incredible metrics on every aspect of their areas of interest. Phil’s interest in business metrics grew from there, and he introduced efficiencies of every kind into the food factories he worked in. Eventually he started his own company, called Ibis World, and offers his teams’ services across the globe. He knows his stuff.
What I mostly took from his comments were:
We are likely to experience a recession every 8.5 years, predictable down to the economic quarter. Note: CAN, not must. And I remember two, during my nearly 30 years in Australia, so there must’ve been one I didn’t notice 
The bigger economic cycle of depressions can come around every 40 or so years. Again, predictable and again, CAN. He’s sure we’ve ” missed” a depression this time around so the next one won’t be due until about 2050. Warn your kids
Why, asked Richard, do we have them anyway?
Phil says that every economy is about 75% consumer driven, and about 25% investment, or capital purchase, driven. As we all know, and Phil affirmed, the consumer economy is pretty much controlled by women. Women make most household purchases including clothing and food.
Capital purchases, on the other hand, tend to be made by men. More specifically by boards of directors of companies, still mostly men.
The consumer economy has never triggered a downturn, recession, or depression. ” Women won’t allow that,” said Phil. So, said Richard, does that mean that men cause economic chaos? Yes, said Phil. They tend to panic when they shouldn’t.
I was enormously amused by this idea being so clearly articulated by a man who has such a wide and long view of world economic cycles. The situation is changing though, as more women have influence on boards of directors, and that’s no surprise as we move into a more balanced male-female energy. Apparently though, having that female energy balancing out the males, will take some of the excitement out of the economy, as the women won’t allow downturns, just a nice steady continual flow.
Well it amused me Most of the women I know are working hard in their own small businesses and in their communities. I don’t hang with women who live in the corporate world because that world doesn’t appeal to me personally. I would be interested to know what corporate women think about this idea of Phil’s.
If you’d like to listen to the original interview, click here to go download the podcast from the ABC Radio website. I’m sure you’ll enjoy it.
